Friday 3 October 2008

D-Day!

The world holds its breath as it nervously waits for tonight's outcome of the crucial vote in the US House of Representative. The outcome is unpredictable despite modified version to appease the rebels. But it is of great importance not only to US economy and financial system well being but the world as well. We are on the verge of Great Depression 1929-1932 if these Congressmen voted against this bill. We might not avert a recessionn even with the passing of the vote but I believe the worst is over after so many false starts. I know it is a "dirty job" rewarding corporate failures and irresponsible risk taking but at stake are jobs, welfare of the poor and savings of millions of not only Americans but world citizens. The systemic risk is real. The contagion impact might take a long time to heal. Already the US economic numbers are poor. US unemployment claims increased to 100,000, the highest since 2001 and factory order drops to its lowest level in 2 years. This couple with a severe credit crunch and multiple bank failures is a dangerous cocktail waiting to explode. In addition, October is a bogey month in US. So do the right thing, Uncle Sam! Just like Buffet purchase on GE, I decided to place my bet on the approval by the House by adding another 100 stocks of British Lloyds Bank@ $18.50. I found the valuation very attractive according to the principles underline by Graham's value investment, ceteris paribus. At the price of $18.50, based on current EPS of $2.90 and DPS of $2.80, I am getting the British Big 4 bank for PE 6.37x and DY of 15.13%. The Beta is 1.36 and ROE 28%. Among the British Big 4, Lloyds bank has the least exposure to sub prime mortgage crisis. I believed the figures provide a comfortable cushion for me to work on.

No comments: